science > What might happen?
How hot?
We know that the world is warming, and we know that it is expected to continue to warm in the future. This warming will not be distributed equally around the globe; certain parts of the world are expected to warm more than others. Projections show that areas located at higher northern latitudes (such as Canada) are expected to warm more than the projected global average.
Global
Over the course of the twentieth century, the global average temperature increased by approximately 0.74°C (1). It is expected that the twenty first century will yield a similar outcome: an even warmer planet.
The degree of warming that is expected over the next century varies depending on several key factors, such as greenhouse gas concentrations and the role of various feedback processes. Because the anthropogenic influence on the climate is significant, it is important to consider the human influence on temperatures in the future. For this reason, the IPCC has adopted a system of various scenarios that take into account the human element in the future climate equation. Different scenarios yield different projections for future warming. By the year 2100, it is expected that the global average temperature will have increased anywhere from 1.8°C to 4°C (relative to the 1980-1999 global average temperature), depending on which scenario is used to factor in the human impact (2).
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Figure 1: Multi-model projected global average temperature (°C) increase relative to the 1980 to 1999 normal. Temperature projections are shown for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios. (IPCC)
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Manitoba
Although global average temperatures are expected to increase in the future, not all areas in the world are expected to warm by the same amount. Land areas in the high northern latitudes are expected to warm more than the global average. Canada is thus expected to warm to a greater degree than the global average.
Within Canada, the North and the central to southern Prairies are expected to warm more than other regions (3). Average temperatures in Manitoba could increase by 3°C to 4°C through the summer months, and by 5°C to 8°C through the winter months (4).
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Figure 2: Projected temperature increase by the 2080s for Canada (using Canadian Global Coupled Model 2-A21). Areas in northern Canada and the southern prairies are expected to warm to a greater degree than other parts of the country. (Natural Resources Canada)
