science > What might happen?
Uncertainties
We know that global average temperatures have increased in the past century, and we know that temperatures will continue to increase in the future. We also know that humans have played an important role in altering our climate thus far. Our reliance on fossil fuels and our manipulation of the landscape have impacted the climate system, and these choices have committed us to further warming in the future.
A certain amount of uncertainty does exist when considering what may happen in the future as a result of climate change. This uncertainty is especially evident when discussing how precipitation may change in the future. Climate change is a complex interaction of multiple factors and processes. As climate change research progresses, so will our understanding of the processes at work.
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The human element
Because human activities impact the climate in profound ways, it is important to consider how humans will impact the climate in the future when discussing climate change. Population growth impacts our climate as it produces more consumers, and thus more people to use resources. Our growing economies impact our climate, as does the technology available to drive our economies. Our level of commitment to sustainable development impacts our climate. These impacts are all the result of choices that we make willingly. How we will decide to live our lives in the future will impact our future climate. Knowing what choices we will make as societies in the future is not clear. There are many paths that we could choose to take.
The IPCC accounts for the human element uncertainty by adopting a system of scenarios. These scenarios allow climate models to make projections for the future while considering the many different choices that we, as drivers of climate change, may make.
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Precipitation
Climate models do not model well for clouds and precipitation. Making projections about how precipitation amounts and distribution will change in the future is thus difficult to do with a great degree of certainty.
First generation climate models were simple in nature, and did not account for many factors beyond atmospheric processes. Today, climate models are much more complex: they account for a variety of processes, feedbacks and variables. As climate models continue to evolve, their ability to predict precipitation amounts and distribution will most likely improve as well.
